KENNESAW, Ga. | Mar 16, 2023

Dalton Shaver is a senior mathematics major who recently presented his research, 'Operation Enduring Freedom: Improving Mission Effectiveness by Identifying Trends in Successful Terrorism,' at the Harvard University National Research Conference.

His research examines how the characteristics of terrorist attacks predict the chance of an attack succeeding, using data from three locations: Trans-Sahara, Horn of Africa, and the Philippines.

Q: What is your hometown and high school? 

A: I am from Walls, Miss., and I moved to Acworth, Ga., my junior year of high school. I graduated from North Paulding High School.

Q: What is your major and class year? What motivated you to pursue your specific degree and career path? 

A: I am a mathematics major, applied statistics and data analytics & international affairs minors. I plan to graduate this semester. I originally was pursuing international affairs because of my interest in world politics and international security. I then decided to maneuver to mathematics later in my college career in order to develop more employable skills.

Q: As a mathematics student, what made you decide to get involved in the School of Data Science and Applied Analytics? What has your experience been like in this department? 

A: I wanted to study and analyze topics in national security using empirical evidence, rather than just claims and opinions from literary sources. I soon developed a love for analyzing data. My experience with the department has been excellent. I have had some fantastic professors that clearly love their job and love pushing students within the field of analytics. I love how the department is continuously growing and creating additional opportunities for students in research, networking, and skill development.  

Q: Everyone has their own unique journey to becoming a KSU Owl. Can you describe why you chose to attend KSU? 

A: I had originally planned on attending a military college out of state. I dual-enrolled during my senior year of high school full-time at KSU. KSU was easier for me to stay close to home, was cheaper than most options, and I was able to easily continue without any further acceptance requirements.

Q: How did you get involved with research at KSU? 

A: I had created my own research project to work on in my free time in Spring 2022, which I eventually presented at Analytics Day. Professor Susan Hardy contacted me about continuing research with her through the fall. We developed a plan in which to use my previous knowledge to begin a new research project in a similar scope of what I had worked on independently. I wanted to choose a topic related to defense that could potentially be of significant value to professionals in the industry. Professor Hardy and I then worked on this research through Fall 2022.

Q: One of the most rewarding parts of being a student researcher is the opportunity to connect with and be mentored by faculty. How has your experience been with KSU faculty since you have been involved with research? 

A: It has been a great experience working with Professor Hardy as well as other professors such as Dr. Austin Brown and Dr. Gene Ray in the School of Data Science and Applied Analytics. It has been extremely valuable to gain skills in critical thinking, academic collaboration, presentations, and networking.

Q: What is one of your favorite parts of being a student researcher? 

A: My favorite part is having my work recognized as being significant and useful. Research tends to have a stigma outside of academia and the scientific community as being useless and a waste of time and money. Being a part of the research community and having the opportunity to participate in research conferences showed me how research can have a positive impact on both further research and applications outside of this community.

Q: What advice would you give current students who may be curious about getting involved in research? 

A: I would absolutely reach out to a professor, specifically one that concentrates on a field or topic you are interested in. You can devise a plan that accomplishes your goals while also proving mutually beneficial to both you and the professor. You have to be prepared to work on the research outside of class and put in the extra effort typically not required in standard courses, but it is far more satisfying and beneficial in the long run.

Q: What was your experience like visiting Boston and sharing your work at Harvard University? 

A: It was a very fun, engaging experience. I had the opportunity to listen to numerous Harvard and MIT faculty present cutting-edge research, as well as tips for young individuals pursuing research. I was also able to network with many other accomplished student researchers that had backgrounds in a wide variety of fields. Being able to visit Cambridge and explore Harvard’s campus was a fantastic experience as well.

Q: Can you describe the subject of the project, as well as the research methods you used? What was the outcome of your research? 

A: Called Operation Enduring Freedom, this research project is a comprehensive response to the spread of terrorism around the world. As extremist conflict continues in highly affected regions such as West Africa, East Africa, and Southeast Asia, intelligence-driven counter-terrorism strategies are crucial to increasing mission effectiveness and establishing long-term security.

Our research examines how the characteristics of terrorist attacks predict the chance of an attack succeeding, where an attack is defined as successful if the intended attack type is carried out. Data was analyzed across three geographical missions within our research: Trans-Sahara, Horn of Africa, and the Philippines. Using predicted probabilities of success obtained from logistic regression models, the medians were plotted to compare the characteristics of terrorist attacks across missions.

We gathered many insights through analyzing Operation Enduring Freedom missions. It is shown that terrorists are substantially successful in their aims to terrorize the general populace. Attacks targeting private citizens, tourists, non-governmental organizations, and food or water supply, have the largest probability of success for the Trans-Sahara and Horn of Africa regions. Suicide attacks in the Philippines raise the chance of success, in contrast to the other two missions. The predicted probability of success when explosives and firearms are used in the Philippines is lower than the Trans-Sahara and Horn of Africa mission areas. Additionally, the odds of an attack succeeding when it involves a barricade incident with hostages is 10,491 times greater the odds of an attack succeeding when it involves bombings.

Q: Without a doubt, being a full-time student while also pursuing research takes a significant amount of skill, discipline, and time-management. Have there any roadblocks that you faced in your time as a student researcher, and how did you overcome them?

A: Having a very tight schedule comes with being both a full-time student and researcher. The most difficult thing is balancing lectures, homework, research, and free time. While counterintuitive, I found that the best solution to this is to always carve out time to relax and do things that reduce stress. It allows you to recharge and come back motivated, which will ultimately allow you to finish more work in the long run.
 
Q: What are your plans and goals after graduating from KSU? Has your time as a student researcher helped prepare you for those dreams? 

A: I plan to enter the private defense industry as a data scientist or applied mathematician. I also plan to eventually continue graduate studies in applied mathematics. I would like to use my research and quantitative skills to enhance national security in the future. My time as a student researcher has given me insight into how actual day to day work may be conducted once beginning a career. I have developed skills that are highly sought after in the job market but are not taught widely in courses generally offered, such as certain programming languages, conference presentations, and project development.

— Will-Franklin Eller